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Thinking Complexity

01 Oct 2016, 12:44 PM
Chapters 2 › Unit 2: State debt and doubling time View instructions Hide instructions

State debt and doubling time

There was a recent news report by Bloomberg.com on France’s growing debt entitled “Government Debt in France and Italy Swells to Euro-Era Highs”. France’s national debt at the end of 2015 was 2096.9 billion euros. It has grown at an average rate of 5.76% since 1995. How long will it take to double in size?
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/government-debt-in-france-and-italy-swells-to-euro-era-highs

Hint: Use the formula for doubling time.

A worked solution is in the references section.

Formula to estimate exponentional growth

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x = 70/y
x= years
y = growth rate in %

in this example:
70/5,76 = 12,15 --> it will take 12,15 years to double in size the national debt of france. This means if the debt rises with the same rate in 2027 it will be approximately 4200 billion euros.

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